Interlude: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Forecasting resources and a prediction market or two to trade on.
This is not a Crowd Money issue. We’ll be releasing more prediction market-specific content in the near-future, so stay tuned. However, we did want to update you on our latest post on globalguessing.com featuring forecasting resources on the ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis. This includes crowd forecasts on a variety of questions across different platforms, superforecaster predictions on an invasion specifically, and high-signal Twitter lists.
We believe this information will be valuable for our Crowd members, whether they wish to incorporate this into tangentially-related prediction market questions, market-based plays, or their information diet. Check it out below:
We’ll conclude by saying there are two real-money prediction markets on a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine that you might be interested trading on. The first, Insight Prediction, is a new platform which recently exited a closed beta and entered a public one. Because the site is new, use your own discretion in participating. The second, Futuur, is not a new platform but does have a low number of users. Again, discretion.
What is your probability Russia will invade Ukraine by the end of the year? By the end of March? Have you made a trade on the above markets? Let us know in the comment section and we’ll feature some in the next 💰 Crowd Money issue!